We are a few days away from the first game of Premier League this season. With a shortened break, frantic transfer market, international duties and more, the beginning of the season is looked upon with excitement and interest.
Unlike last season where the pundits didn’t give Chelsea a Top 4 chance, this season Chelsea is expected to finish 3rd after Liverpool and City. Could Chelsea win the league if we are to look at the statistics or would we end up in the top 4 comfortably unlike last season’s last-minute hurdles?
What’s most interesting to note is that Chelsea has the 2nd Biggest Chances created in the league after Man City. Unfortunately for Lampard, the conversion of those chances has been poor which is reflected in the Expected Goals or XG as it is known.
Chelsea had an XG of 76 Goals and scored 69. This means that we scored 7 fewer goals than we should have. This performance is the worst among the Top 6 that finished last season. We should also include the fact that our GA (Goals Conceded) is 54 against XGA which was 41. That means we conceded 14 more goals than expected, which is the worst among the Top 10 last season. We also can’t forget the horrible season Kepa had all season.
Now, we scored fewer goals than we should have and let in more goals than we should have. Even then we finished in the top 4 and that’s a true achievement. Thanks to bottling up by Leicester, Wolves and Sheffield, we fared much better than we should have, statistically.
What does all this mean for the coming season?
Let’s suppose that we scored all the chances that came across while keeping the stats the same. We will have 76 Goals and let in only 41 Goals with a GD of 35. Even then, we still would have finished 3rd in the league but way ahead of ManU.
Where is the difference? It’s about losing games/clean sheets. Liverpool lost only 3 games while City lost 9 and ManU lost 8. Liverpool won 32, City won 26 and ManU 18. While we won 20 games last season, we had the least clean sheets among the top 10, which was 9 clean sheets.
If we were to keep 12-15 clean sheets, we could have won about 23-25 games last season. Even then, we would be only 3rd behind Liverpool and City.
So what about this season? What we need is clean sheets or fewer losses. If we can curtain our losses to 3 or 4, we have a strong chance.
With new signings coming in which bolsters the attack and defence, we are in a strong position to challenge Liverpool and City. While Liverpool is looking to maintain their lead this season, City with good defensive signings looks sharp and ready to challenge the champions.
It all depends on who is going to bottle up first. Either Pool or City bottling up means that we do have a chance of challenging for the title. It might be a shot, but still a shot.
Written by Srikkanth G